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Trading payout & risk calculator

See the real math behind short-term trades — your stake, the win rate you need to break even, and your expected result over many trades.

Home/Payout calculator
Stake per trade—
Profit if you win—
Loss if you lose—
Break-even win rate—
Expected value / trade—
Projected over N trades—
Enter your numbers and press Calculate.

How to use this calculator

  • Balance — your total trading capital.
  • Risk per trade — the share of your balance you stake on a single trade. Most disciplined traders keep this at 1–2%.
  • Payout % — what a winning trade returns on top of your stake (e.g. 85% means a $10 win returns $8.50 profit).
  • Win rate — the percentage of trades you expect to win.
  • Number of trades — how many trades to project the result across.

The key insight: break-even win rate

Because a loss costs you your full stake but a win only returns the payout percentage, you need to win more than half your trades just to break even. With an 85% payout, your break-even win rate is about 54%. If your real win rate is below that line, you lose money over time no matter how it feels in the moment. That single fact explains why most beginners lose — and why risk management matters more than any "signal".

Practise these numbers risk-free

Test a strategy on the free demo before risking real money.

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This calculator is for education only and makes simplifying assumptions (fixed payout, fixed win rate, constant stake). Real trading outcomes vary. Nothing here is financial advice.